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2.11

Use of functions in modelling, including consideration of limitations and refinements of the models.

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Functions in modelling

Worked answers and methods for 2.11 on Edexcel A-level Maths 9MA0.

Explanation

  • A function model links clearly defined variables over a stated domain; it may use polynomial, exponential, logarithmic, trigonometric or reciprocal functions.
  • Use data to determine parameters, then calculate and interpret the result with units and appropriate rounding.
  • For example, P(t)=P0rtP(t)=P_0r^t models repeated growth, while a sine function can model periodic height and a reciprocal function can model inverse variation.
  • Evaluate assumptions such as fixed rates, exact periodicity, ignored constraints or extrapolation.
  • A refinement must answer the weakness: use a piecewise rate when growth changes, add a seasonal term when residuals are periodic, or restrict the domain when extrapolation is unreliable.

Worked example

A cooling model is T(t)=18+62e0.15tT(t)=18+62e^{-0.15t}, where TT is in degrees Celsius and tt is in minutes. Find the first whole minute for which the model gives T<30T<30, and state one limitation.

  1. 1.Solve 18+62e0.15t<3018+62e^{-0.15t}<30.
  2. 2.This gives e0.15t<6/31e^{-0.15t}<6/31, so t>ln(6/31)/0.15=10.95t>-\ln(6/31)/0.15=10.95\ldots.
  3. 3.The first whole minute is therefore 1111.
  4. 4.One limitation is that the fixed ambient temperature may not remain exactly 1818 degrees Celsius.

Answer: 1111 minutes; for example, the model assumes a constant surrounding temperature of 1818 degrees Celsius.

Common mistakes

  • Don't report a decimal model output as an exact real-world count without appropriate contextual rounding.
  • Don't extrapolate beyond the stated domain without discussing whether the model assumptions remain plausible.

Exam tip

After interpreting the value, link each limitation to a concrete refinement that changes the model or restricts its domain.

Worked practice

Q1
Tier 1 · Easy

1.

A colony is modelled by P(t)=120(1.08)tP(t)=120(1.08)^t, where tt is measured in days. Estimate the number of organisms after 33 days.

(2)

(Total for Question 1 is 2 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 1
QuestionSchemeMarks
1
  • 151151 organisms
2
Notes
Substitute t=3t=3: P(3)=120(1.08)3=151.16544P(3)=120(1.08)^3=151.16544. Since the output counts organisms, round to the nearest whole number to obtain 151151.

(2 marks)

Q2
Tier 2 · Standard

2.

A company uses V=AbtV=Ab^t to estimate the value of a car, where £VV is its value tt years after purchase. The constants AA and bb satisfy b>0b>0. According to this model, the car is worth £1800018\,000 initially and £1458014\,580 after two years. Find AA and bb. Hence estimate the value of the car after 55 years, giving your answer to the nearest pound. State one limitation of the model.

(5)

(Total for Question 2 is 5 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 2
QuestionSchemeMarks
2
  • A=18000A=18\,000 and b=0.9b=0.9
  • £1062910\,629
  • For example, the model does not allow for sudden changes in value caused by damage or repairs.
5
Notes
At t=0t=0, A=18000A=18\,000. Using t=2t=2 gives 14580=18000b214\,580=18\,000b^2, so b2=0.81b^2=0.81 and, since b>0b>0, b=0.9b=0.9. Then V(5)=18000(0.9)5=10628.82V(5)=18\,000(0.9)^5=10\,628.82, giving £1062910\,629 to the nearest pound. A limitation is that a constant annual multiplier cannot represent unexpected damage, repairs or changes in the second-hand market.

(5 marks)

Q3
Tier 3 · Hard

3.

The cross-section of a greenhouse roof is modelled by h(x)=kx(30x)h(x)=kx(30-x) for 0x300\leq x\leq30, with distances in metres. The point (5,10)(5,10) lies on the model. Find kk, the maximum modelled height, and the horizontal width over which h(x)12h(x)\geq12. Give one limitation of the model.

(7)

(Total for Question 3 is 7 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 3
QuestionSchemeMarks
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  • k=0.08k=0.08
  • Maximum height 1818 m
  • Width 10310\sqrt3 m
  • For example, a real roof cross-section may not be exactly parabolic.
7
Notes
Using (5,10)(5,10) gives 10=k(5)(25)10=k(5)(25), so k=0.08k=0.08. The quadratic is symmetric about x=15x=15, where h(15)=0.08(15)(15)=18h(15)=0.08(15)(15)=18. For h(x)12h(x)\geq12, solve 0.08x(30x)120.08x(30-x)\geq12, equivalent to x230x+1500x^2-30x+150\leq0. The roots are 15±5315\pm5\sqrt3, so the allowed interval has width (15+53)(1553)=103(15+5\sqrt3)-(15-5\sqrt3)=10\sqrt3 metres. The exact-parabola assumption is a limitation because manufactured or loaded roofs may have a different profile.

(7 marks)

Q4
Tier 1 · Easy

4.

A battery's charge percentage is modelled by C(t)=967tC(t)=96-7t for 0t100\leq t\leq10, where tt is measured in hours. Find C(6)C(6) and explain why the model should not be used to predict C(14)C(14).

(2)

(Total for Question 4 is 2 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 4
QuestionSchemeMarks
4
  • C(6)=54C(6)=54
  • t=14t=14 is outside the stated domain of the model.
2
Notes
Substitution gives C(6)=967(6)=54C(6)=96-7(6)=54. The model is stated only for 0t100\leq t\leq10, so using t=14t=14 would be an unsupported extrapolation.

(2 marks)

Q5
Tier 2 · Standard

5.

A concentration is modelled by C(t)=at+bC(t)=\dfrac{a}{t+b} for t0t\geq0, where aa and bb are positive constants. Given C(0)=24C(0)=24 and C(4)=12C(4)=12, find aa and bb. Hence find the time when C(t)=8C(t)=8.

(5)

(Total for Question 5 is 5 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 5
QuestionSchemeMarks
5
  • a=96a=96, b=4b=4
  • t=8t=8
5
Notes
From C(0)=24C(0)=24, a/b=24a/b=24, so a=24ba=24b. From C(4)=12C(4)=12, a=12(b+4)a=12(b+4). Equating these gives 24b=12b+4824b=12b+48, hence b=4b=4 and a=96a=96. Finally, 96/(t+4)=896/(t+4)=8 gives t+4=12t+4=12, so t=8t=8.

(5 marks)

Q6
Tier 3 · Hard

6.

For t0t\geq0, a storm collection model is R(t)=att+bR(t)=\dfrac{at}{t+b}, with positive parameters aa and bb. Given R(2)=18R(2)=18 and R(6)=36R(6)=36, find aa and bb and the limiting amount predicted by the model. A gauge later records 7878 cubic metres from this storm. Decide whether the model can represent the whole storm, and state a specific refinement.

(7)

(Total for Question 6 is 7 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 6
QuestionSchemeMarks
6
  • a=72a=72, b=6b=6
  • The limiting amount is 7272 cubic metres.
  • No; the model never reaches 7878 cubic metres. Refit the model with a limiting parameter greater than 7878 cubic metres using the later data.
7
Notes
Using R(2)=18R(2)=18 gives 18=2a/(2+b)18=2a/(2+b), so a=18+9ba=18+9b. Using R(6)=36R(6)=36 gives 36=6a/(6+b)36=6a/(6+b), so a=36+6ba=36+6b. Equating these expressions gives b=6b=6 and then a=72a=72. As tt\to\infty, at/(t+b)aat/(t+b)\to a, so the predicted limiting amount is 7272 cubic metres. For every finite t0t\geq0, the model gives R(t)<72R(t)<72, so it cannot represent a recorded total of 7878 cubic metres. A specific refinement is to refit the asymptote parameter using the later observation, making the limiting value exceed 7878 cubic metres.

(7 marks)

Q7
Tier 2 · Standard

7.

A water level is modelled by H(t)=a+bcos(πt/6)H(t)=a+b\cos(\pi t/6) for 0t120\leq t\leq12, where HH is measured in metres and tt in hours. The model gives H(0)=8H(0)=8 and H(6)=2H(6)=2. Find aa and bb, then find the first time after t=0t=0 when H(t)=5H(t)=5. State the periodicity assumption made by the model.

(5)

(Total for Question 7 is 5 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 7
QuestionSchemeMarks
7
  • a=5a=5, b=3b=3
  • t=3t=3 hours
  • The water-level pattern is assumed to repeat exactly every 1212 hours.
5
Notes
Since cos0=1\cos0=1 and cosπ=1\cos\pi=-1, the two observations give a+b=8a+b=8 and ab=2a-b=2. Hence a=5a=5 and b=3b=3. Solving 5+3cos(πt/6)=55+3\cos(\pi t/6)=5 gives cos(πt/6)=0\cos(\pi t/6)=0; the first positive solution is πt/6=π/2\pi t/6=\pi/2, so t=3t=3. The cosine model assumes an exactly repeating 1212-hour cycle.

(5 marks)

Q8
Tier 3 · Hard

8.

A quantity is modelled at whole-number times t0t\geq0 by P(t)=LArtP(t)=L-Ar^t, where A>0A>0, L>0L>0 and 0<r<10<r<1. Given P(0)=20P(0)=20, P(1)=44P(1)=44 and P(2)=56P(2)=56, find LL, AA and rr. Hence find the first whole-number time for which P(t)>65P(t)>65. A later measurement is lower than the model because the surrounding conditions changed at t=3t=3; state a specific refinement that addresses this information.

(7)

(Total for Question 8 is 7 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 8
QuestionSchemeMarks
8
  • L=68L=68, A=48A=48, r=12r=\dfrac12
  • The first whole-number time is t=5t=5.
  • Use a piecewise model with new parameter values from t=3t=3 onwards.
7
Notes
The first two increases are 4420=2444-20=24 and 5644=1256-44=12. For this model successive increases have ratio rr, so r=12/24=1/2r=12/24=1/2. Also P(1)P(0)=A(1r)=24P(1)-P(0)=A(1-r)=24, giving A=48A=48. Then P(0)=LA=20P(0)=L-A=20 gives L=68L=68. The inequality 6848(1/2)t>6568-48(1/2)^t>65 is equivalent to (1/2)t<1/16(1/2)^t<1/16, so t>4t>4 and the first whole-number time is 55. A piecewise model, refitted with different parameters for t3t\geq3, directly represents the changed conditions.

(7 marks)

Q9
Tier 3 · Hard

9.

A braking-distance model is D=kvnD=kv^n, where DD is measured in metres, vv in metres per second, and k>0k>0. The model gives D=8D=8 when v=10v=10 and D=32D=32 when v=20v=20. Find kk and nn, then predict DD when v=30v=30. A measured braking distance at 3030 metres per second is 7878 metres. State the model error and give a specific refinement.

(6)

(Total for Question 9 is 6 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 9
QuestionSchemeMarks
9
  • n=2n=2 and k=0.08k=0.08
  • The model predicts 7272 metres.
  • It underestimates by 66 metres; for example, fit a piecewise power model using additional high-speed data.
6
Notes
Dividing the two model equations gives 32/8=(20/10)n32/8=(20/10)^n, so 4=2n4=2^n and n=2n=2. Then 8=100k8=100k, giving k=0.08k=0.08. At v=30v=30, the model gives D=0.08(30)2=72D=0.08(30)^2=72 metres. Compared with the measured 7878 metres, this is an underestimate of 66 metres. A specific refinement is to collect further high-speed observations and fit a second power law above a stated speed threshold.

(6 marks)

Q10
Tier 3 · Hard

10.

For t0t\geq0, a population is modelled by P(t)=50(2t/2)P(t)=50(2^{t/2}) for 0t40\leq t\leq4 and by P(t)=A(32)t4P(t)=A\left(\dfrac32\right)^{t-4} for t>4t>4. The model is continuous at t=4t=4. Find AA and the first whole-number time for which P(t)>600P(t)>600. State one limitation of using the second branch indefinitely and give a specific refinement.

(7)

(Total for Question 10 is 7 marks)

Mark scheme

Mark scheme for question 10
QuestionSchemeMarks
10
  • A=200A=200
  • The first whole-number time is t=7t=7.
  • A constant 50%50\% increase per time interval cannot remain realistic indefinitely; for example, replace the second branch by a model with a finite limiting population.
7
Notes
At t=4t=4, the first branch gives P(4)=50(22)=200P(4)=50(2^2)=200. Continuity therefore requires A=200A=200. The first branch never exceeds 200200. On the second branch, P(6)=200(3/2)2=450P(6)=200(3/2)^2=450, while P(7)=200(3/2)3=675P(7)=200(3/2)^3=675. Since the branch is increasing, the first whole-number time with P(t)>600P(t)>600 is t=7t=7. Indefinite fixed-percentage growth ignores limited resources, so a model with a carrying-capacity parameter would be a specific refinement.

(7 marks)

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